The sentiments of global organizations as sources of asymmetry for Okun’s law in the European Union

DENİZ P., Stengos T.

Journal of Economic Asymmetries, cilt.33, 2026 (Scopus) identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 33
  • Basım Tarihi: 2026
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1016/j.jeca.2026.e00459
  • Dergi Adı: Journal of Economic Asymmetries
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Scopus, EconLit
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: EU, Okun’s law, Panel threshold regression, Sentiment analysis
  • Marmara Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

This study revisits Okun’s law for the European Union (EU) countries using sentiments as a potential threshold variable within a threshold regression (TR) framework. Using the FinBERT algorithm to measure sentiments, we take the communication tones of the most influential organizations as the source of asymmetric effects, namely those of the European Central Bank (ECB), the Federal Reserve (FED), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the United Nations (UN). The first two communication tones provide domestic and external monetary policy sentiments, whereas the last two provide sentiments for global financial stability and geopolitics, respectively. The threshold regression results suggest that asymmetric effects depend on the source of the sentiments, the temporal dimension of the analysis and is heterogeneous across countries. Moreover, the findings seem to reveal the rival-partner interdependence between the EU and the US, using the sentiments of the FED.