Research Information System
Social Sciences Research Journal (SSRJ), vol.9, no.2, pp.59-68, 2020 (Peer-Reviewed Journal)
There are many national and international studies and policies related to employment, which means that labor is
included in the labor force in a narrow sense. The purpose of this study, between the years 2006-2019 by the
analysis of the employment rate in Turkey, the determination of appropriate employment patterns, and to make
predictions for the future. Since seasonal effects are observed in the employment rate examined in the examined
period range, firstly, seasonal time series characteristics of the data were investigated with the HEGY seasonal
unit root test. As a result of this analysis, it was observed that there were sharp seasonal fluctuations, and the longterm trend of the series was stochastic. Box-Jenkins SARIMA technique was used as a method for modeling by
the determined features of the series. Following the determination of candidate SARIMA models with the help of
the Box-Jenkins technique, the most appropriate model was decided according to Akaike and Schwarz information
criteria by the principle of stinginess. It is determined that the most appropriate model for estimating the
employment rate in our country is SARIMA(2,1,2)(1,1,2)!". The correlation coefficient (r=0.9576) was
determined with the regression curve obtained using the estimated and real employment rate values. It has been
observed that there is a strong positive relationship between predictive values and real values. Also, as a result of
examining the ex-post prediction of the model, it has been statistically proved that the model is a model that is
suitable for the series and has high predictive success. With the model determined, monthly employment rate
forecasts for 2019 were also obtained. In line with the results obtained, it is observed that there is a similar decrease
in the employment rate in the last months of each year. According to the predicted econometric model and the
medium-term forecasting results for 2019, the same situation is expected. It is thought that the employment of
seasonal workers in agriculture, forestry and fisheries, construction and accommodation and foodservice
industries, which have the highest employment rate among the economic activities, constitutes this situation. This
is in line with sustainable economic growth, while capital rather than labor-intensive growth policies applied in
Turkey is believed that importance should be attached to the intensive policies.