Box-Jenkins Technique of Employment Rate in Turkey Using Modeling and Mid-Term Forecasting


Ün T.

Social Sciences Research Journal (SSRJ), cilt.9, sa.2, ss.59-68, 2020 (Diğer Kurumların Hakemli Dergileri)

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 9 Konu: 2
  • Basım Tarihi: 2020
  • Dergi Adı: Social Sciences Research Journal (SSRJ)
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.59-68

Özet

There are many national and international studies and policies related to employment, which means that labor is included in the labor force in a narrow sense. The purpose of this study, between the years 2006-2019 by the analysis of the employment rate in Turkey, the determination of appropriate employment patterns, and to make predictions for the future. Since seasonal effects are observed in the employment rate examined in the examined period range, firstly, seasonal time series characteristics of the data were investigated with the HEGY seasonal unit root test. As a result of this analysis, it was observed that there were sharp seasonal fluctuations, and the longterm trend of the series was stochastic. Box-Jenkins SARIMA technique was used as a method for modeling by the determined features of the series. Following the determination of candidate SARIMA models with the help of the Box-Jenkins technique, the most appropriate model was decided according to Akaike and Schwarz information criteria by the principle of stinginess. It is determined that the most appropriate model for estimating the employment rate in our country is SARIMA(2,1,2)(1,1,2)!". The correlation coefficient (r=0.9576) was determined with the regression curve obtained using the estimated and real employment rate values. It has been observed that there is a strong positive relationship between predictive values and real values. Also, as a result of examining the ex-post prediction of the model, it has been statistically proved that the model is a model that is suitable for the series and has high predictive success. With the model determined, monthly employment rate forecasts for 2019 were also obtained. In line with the results obtained, it is observed that there is a similar decrease in the employment rate in the last months of each year. According to the predicted econometric model and the medium-term forecasting results for 2019, the same situation is expected. It is thought that the employment of seasonal workers in agriculture, forestry and fisheries, construction and accommodation and foodservice industries, which have the highest employment rate among the economic activities, constitutes this situation. This is in line with sustainable economic growth, while capital rather than labor-intensive growth policies applied in Turkey is believed that importance should be attached to the intensive policies.