Akademik Veri Yönetim Sistemi
Contributions to Finance and Accounting, Springer Nature, ss.51-62, 2026
This chapter examines the impact of non-fundamental factors on the determination of Brent crude oil prices, with particular emphasis on the role of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and, most importantly, Saudi Arabia. Employing a quantile regression framework on monthly data spanning 2002–2025, the study investigates the asymmetric effects of geopolitical risk, Saudi crude oil supply, and structural demand from China across different market states. The results indicate that Brent oil prices are largely insensitive to global geopolitical risk, suggesting that political instability does not exert a systematic influence on international oil price dynamics. Markets appear to absorb such shocks through diversification of supply and established risk-hedging mechanisms, limiting their long-term impact. Similarly, Saudi-specific geopolitical risks show little effect across most quantiles, with only a short-lived negative influence during the onset of extreme high-price states. By contrast, Saudi crude oil production demonstrates a more consistent and tangible effect: output increases tend to place downward pressure on prices during normal conditions, underscoring the Kingdom’s role as a swing producer within OPEC. Finally, China’s GDP growth emerges as a structural driver, exerting upward pressure across all quantiles. These findings highlight the resilience of oil markets to geopolitical disturbances and reaffirm the centrality of Saudi supply adjustments and Chinese demand in shaping long-term price trajectories.