Electricity prices through the lens of sentiments for the UN and the IMF: An asymmetric approach for Türkiye

DENİZ P., Stengos T.

Borsa Istanbul Review, cilt.25, sa.4, ss.756-769, 2025 (SSCI) identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 25 Sayı: 4
  • Basım Tarihi: 2025
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1016/j.bir.2025.03.008
  • Dergi Adı: Borsa Istanbul Review
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), Scopus, EconLit, Directory of Open Access Journals
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.756-769
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: Asymmetric model, Communication tone, Electricity price, NARDL, Sentiment analysis
  • Marmara Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

This study examines the impact of the tone used in communication by two major international organizations, the United Nations (UN) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), on electricity prices in Türkiye, an energy-dependent developing country with the highest-growing energy demand among member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The empirical findings reveal that the effect of the communication tone of the two organizations on electricity prices differs, such that the IMF has a larger impact. Because of the significant impact of the communication tone by the IMF and the UN on the Turkish electricity market, the main policy recommendations to ensure energy security in Türkiye are decreasing dependence on the global markets, increasing credibility via sound domestic macroeconomic policymaking, increasing the share of renewable energy, and initiating a battery energy storage system.