The effects of a US-China trade war on Sub-Saharan Africa: Pro-active domestic policies make the difference

Nantembelele F. A., Yilmaz M. K., ARI A.

Journal of Policy Modeling, cilt.45, sa.6, ss.1296-1310, 2023 (SSCI) identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 45 Sayı: 6
  • Basım Tarihi: 2023
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.06.002
  • Dergi Adı: Journal of Policy Modeling
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), Scopus, Academic Search Premier, IBZ Online, International Bibliography of Social Sciences, Periodicals Index Online, ABI/INFORM, Business Source Elite, Business Source Premier, EconLit, Political Science Complete, Public Affairs Index
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.1296-1310
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: CGE, GTAP, Sub-Saharan Africa, Trade policy, Trade war
  • Marmara Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

This study simulates the impact of the change in trade policy between the US and China on the trade volume and economic prosperity of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). To do that, we employ a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model based on the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) with different scenarios focusing on increases in tariffs. The results show that the tariff increases negatively affect the US and China in terms of trade volume and economic growth, while it leads to trade diversion and creation for the SSA. This offers valuable opportunities in improving exports and economic growth, particularly for Ethiopia, Kenya, and Nigeria. On the sectorial level, the findings imply that agriculture, food, and oil and gas sectors are positively affected in terms of export volume, while mineral, metal and service sectors are negatively impacted by the trade war.