Uncertainty shocks, central bank characteristics and business cycles

Yildinm-Karaman S.

ECONOMIC SYSTEMS, vol.41, no.3, pp.379-388, 2017 (SSCI) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 41 Issue: 3
  • Publication Date: 2017
  • Doi Number: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2016.09.004
  • Journal Name: ECONOMIC SYSTEMS
  • Journal Indexes: Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), Scopus
  • Page Numbers: pp.379-388
  • Keywords: Uncertainty, Volatility shocks, Business cycles, Central bank independence, Central bank transparency, INDEPENDENCE, TRANSPARENCY, POLICY, INSTITUTIONS, CREDIBILITY, PERFORMANCE, VOLATILITY, COUNTRIES
  • Marmara University Affiliated: No

Abstract

This paper investigates the conjecture that central bank independence and transparency moderate the negative effect of uncertainty shocks on real output. To test this conjecture, the real GDP growth rate is regressed on the interaction terms between measures of central bank characteristics and the proxy for macroeconomic uncertainty, i.e. stock market volatility. To address potential endogeneity concerns, stock market volatility is instrumented in a Two Stage Least Squares model by plausibly exogenous natural disaster, terrorist attack, political coup and revolution shocks. The estimation results provide strong evidence that central bank independence reduces the adverse effect of uncertainty shocks. There is also evidence for the moderating impact of transparency. However, due to the limited availability of transparency data, the result is less conclusive.