Exuberant behaviour in the Istanbul housing market before and during the time of the COVID-19 pandemic: evidence from the aggregate and disaggregate levels

Gunduz L., Tekin S. B., Ozer M., Genc I. H.

Applied Economics Letters, vol.32, no.5, pp.619-623, 2025 (SSCI, Scopus) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 32 Issue: 5
  • Publication Date: 2025
  • Doi Number: 10.1080/13504851.2023.2278592
  • Journal Name: Applied Economics Letters
  • Journal Indexes: Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), Scopus, IBZ Online, International Bibliography of Social Sciences, ABI/INFORM, Business Source Elite, Business Source Premier, CAB Abstracts, EconLit, Geobase, Public Affairs Index, Veterinary Science Database, DIALNET
  • Page Numbers: pp.619-623
  • Keywords: COVID-19, Exuberance, GSADF test, house prices, Istanbul
  • Marmara University Affiliated: Yes

Abstract

We study mildly explosive behaviour in house prices in Istanbul at both aggregate and disaggregate levels via GSADF tests. In contrast to previous studies, our results suggest multiple episodes of price exuberance in Istanbul and most districts. Most boroughs synchronically experienced explosive house prices in 2014–2015; and more powerfully during the last episodes of COVID-19. We also show that financial variables, including low mortgage interest rates and high stock prices, increased the probability of explosiveness.