Vaccine spending and economic recovery: OECD panel data analysis

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Aydın E., Ozyesil M., Tembelo H.

Northern Clinics of Istanbul, vol.13, no.1, pp.72-86, 2026 (ESCI, Scopus, TRDizin) identifier identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 13 Issue: 1
  • Publication Date: 2026
  • Doi Number: 10.14744/nci.2026.36418
  • Journal Name: Northern Clinics of Istanbul
  • Journal Indexes: Emerging Sources Citation Index (ESCI), Scopus, Central & Eastern European Academic Source (CEEAS), Directory of Open Access Journals, TR DİZİN (ULAKBİM)
  • Page Numbers: pp.72-86
  • Keywords: Economic recovery, OECD countries, panel data analysis, public health investment, vaccine expenditure
  • Marmara University Affiliated: Yes

Abstract

OBJECTIVE: This study investigates whether public spending on vaccination programmes contributes to macroeconomic normalization following severe health shocks in high-income Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) economies. METHODS: An unbalanced OECD panel dataset was analysed using a fixed-effects specification that incorporates structural controls including inflation, unemployment, trade openness, and general health expenditure. RESULTS: The empirical results indicate that vaccine expenditure does not exert a statistically significant independent effect on economic recovery, although the coefficients display a positive but economically modest direction. Conversely, several macroeconomic fundamentals demonstrate stronger and more consistent associations with recovery dynamics. CONCLUSION: Vaccination functions as a necessary but insufficient component of recovery strategies, with its economic influence mediated through system-level efficiency rather than direct fiscal input. Integrated policy frameworks that combine public health interventions with structural economic measures are required.