Küresel Kriz Sürecinde Altın Fiyatlarını Etkileyen Dinamikler


Karataş T. , Ürkmez E.

INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON EURASIAN ECONOMIES 2013, Sankt-Peterburg, Rusya, 17 - 18 Eylül 2013, ss.558-564

  • Basıldığı Şehir: Sankt-Peterburg
  • Basıldığı Ülke: Rusya
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.558-564

Özet

Gold prices have been one of the most observed financial indicators in the global economy. Various macro dynamics that historically determine the price of gold, as a precious metal have been initiated. In this scope, gold price fluctuations are closely linked to the global economic conjuncture. In this study, the role of gold in the global economy and historical gold prices are examined briefly, and in the course of global finance crisis, the elements Dow- Jones Index, petrol prices and silver prices as assigning gold prices are dealt with. An economic and econometric analysis is carried out for these indicators since it is regarded that they are crucially instrumental in gold prices. Study period is determined monthly and covers between 2007:01 and 2013:02. Johansen co-integration test, VECM and impulse response analyses are used in the econometric analysis. According to VECM analysis, it has been found out that the indicators do not act in unison in the short term, but the results of co-integration analysis reveal that gold prices are associated with the related economic indicators in the long term. As a result of impulse response analysis, it is seen that gold prices are more influenced by the fluctuations in petrol prices than other indicators. Within the frame of findings, it has been revealed that gold prices unsurprisingly increase during the crisis periods and are influenced by the indicators stated above.