Dating Currency Crisis and Assessing the Determinants Based on Meta Fuzzy Index Functions

Gok A., Tak N.

COMPUTATIONAL ECONOMICS, cilt.61, sa.3, ss.1225-1250, 2023 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 61 Sayı: 3
  • Basım Tarihi: 2023
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1007/s10614-022-10243-9
  • Dergi Adı: COMPUTATIONAL ECONOMICS
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), Scopus, IBZ Online, International Bibliography of Social Sciences, ABI/INFORM, EconLit, INSPEC, zbMATH
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.1225-1250
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: Dating currency crises, Determinants of currency crises, Logit regression, Meta fuzzy functions, MFIF, EARLY-WARNING SYSTEM, FINANCIAL CRISES, EMERGING MARKETS, TWIN CRISES, TURKEY, FUNDAMENTALS, BANKING
  • Marmara Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

We use Meta Fuzzy Index Functions to date currency crises in Turkey over the period of January 1990 and October 2019 by aggregating ten different currency crisis indices. In order to assess the determinants of currency crises, we employed logit regression models based on four different groups of explanatory variables. We have found that change in real exchange rate among current account variables, central bank foreign assets over M1, foreign reserves over M1, growth of foreign reserves, growth of central bank foreign assets among capital account variables, credit growth and banking deposits over M2 among the banking variables, real interest rate, inflation rate, change in stock prices, industrial production index and public sector credit growth among the financial variables are significant determinants of currency crises. All of the significant variables except banking deposits over M2 are robust.