ANFIS modeling for forecasting oil consumption of Turkey

ŞENVAR Ö., Ulutagay G., Bekar E. T.

Journal of Multiple-Valued Logic and Soft Computing, cilt.26, sa.6, ss.609-624, 2016 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 26 Sayı: 6
  • Basım Tarihi: 2016
  • Dergi Adı: Journal of Multiple-Valued Logic and Soft Computing
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.609-624
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), Double exponential smoothing technique, Forecasting, Oil Consumption, FUZZY INFERENCE SYSTEM, DEMAND
  • Marmara Üniversitesi Adresli: Hayır

Özet

© 2016 Old City Publishing, Inc.In this study, the interrelationship between oil consumption and economic growth is examined via ANFIS modeling that is used to obtain long term forecasting results for oil consumption of Turkey through predetermined inputs, which are specified as population, gross domestic product (GDP), import and export. The data samples from 1965 to 2000 are conducted for developing the ANFIS model indicating the relationship between the oil consumption and the four inputs. Triangular types of membership functions are defined as low, medium and high for each input parameter in the ANFIS prediction system. Afterwards, oil consumption of Turkey is predicted from 2012 to 2030 using double exponential forecasting technique. Hence, this study can act as a guideline for long term forecasting of future oil consumption of any other country.