Fuzzy time series forecasting with a novel hybrid approach combining fuzzy c-means and neural networks

Egrioglu E., ALADAĞ Ç. H., Yolcu U.

EXPERT SYSTEMS WITH APPLICATIONS, cilt.40, sa.3, ss.854-857, 2013 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 40 Sayı: 3
  • Basım Tarihi: 2013
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1016/j.eswa.2012.05.040
  • Dergi Adı: EXPERT SYSTEMS WITH APPLICATIONS
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.854-857
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: Artificial neural networks, Defuzzification, Forecast, Fuzzification, Fuzzy c-means, Fuzzy time series, ENROLLMENTS, MODEL, INTERVALS, LENGTH
  • Marmara Üniversitesi Adresli: Hayır

Özet

In recent years, time series forecasting studies in which fuzzy time series approach is utilized have got more attentions. Various soft computing techniques such as fuzzy clustering, artificial neural networks and genetic algorithms have been used in fuzzy time series method to improve the method. While fuzzy clustering and genetic algorithms are being used for fuzzification, artificial neural networks method is being preferred for using in defining fuzzy relationships. In this study, a hybrid fuzzy time series approach is proposed to reach more accurate forecasts. In the proposed hybrid approach, fuzzy c-means clustering method and artificial neural networks are employed for fuzzification and defining fuzzy relationships, respectively. The enrollment data of University of Alabama is forecasted by using both the proposed method and the other fuzzy time series approaches. As a result of comparison, it is seen that the most accurate forecasts are obtained when the proposed hybrid fuzzy time series approach is used. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.