How does financial development alter the impact of uncertainty?


Karaman K. K. , Yildirim-Karaman S.

JOURNAL OF BANKING & FINANCE, vol.102, pp.33-42, 2019 (Journal Indexed in SSCI) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 102
  • Publication Date: 2019
  • Doi Number: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2019.03.008
  • Title of Journal : JOURNAL OF BANKING & FINANCE
  • Page Numbers: pp.33-42
  • Keywords: Uncertainty, Economic recessions, Financial development, PRECAUTIONARY SAVINGS, SHOCKS, RISK, MODEL

Abstract

How does the impact of uncertainty on output vary with financial development levels? We investigate this question empirically, using a quarterly panel data set of 50 countries between 1971 and 2009 and an Instrumental Variables model. The results support the conjecture that financial development mitigates the negative impact of uncertainty on output. At the lower end of the distribution of the financial development levels, one standard deviation increase in uncertainty decreases output by more than two standard deviations. At the higher end of financial development, the impact on output is statistically insignificant. These results suggest that strengthening the financial system and increasing liquidity and credit availability improce the robustness of growth performance during periods of uncertainty. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.