Asymmetric effects of global sentiments on EU electricity prices

DENİZ P., Stengos T.

Journal of Economic Asymmetries, cilt.33, 2026 (Scopus) identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 33
  • Basım Tarihi: 2026
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1016/j.jeca.2026.e00457
  • Dergi Adı: Journal of Economic Asymmetries
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Scopus, EconLit
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: Asymmetry, Electricity prices, Sentiment analysis, The EU
  • Marmara Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

This study investigates the role of sentiments expressed through various publications by international organizations, namely the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Trade Organization (WTO), the World Bank (WB) and the United Nations (UN) on electricity prices for 22 European Union (EU) countries, controlling for the main determinants used in the literature. Sentiments are measured using the finBERT algorithm. The analysis is carried out within a kink regression framework to account for possible asymmetric effects. Concentrating on the IMF, the findings suggest a negative and asymmetric effect of IMF sentiments on electricity prices in several EU countries during relatively more pessimistic periods.