An analysis of two leading indicators of economic growth in Turkey: Monthly manufacturing industry output and CNBC-e consumption indices


Aslanoglu E., ÇELİK S.

IKTISAT ISLETME VE FINANS, vol.25, no.293, pp.9-31, 2010 (Journal Indexed in SSCI) identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 25 Issue: 293
  • Publication Date: 2010
  • Doi Number: 10.3848/iif.2010.293.2598
  • Title of Journal : IKTISAT ISLETME VE FINANS
  • Page Numbers: pp.9-31
  • Keywords: CNBC-e Consumption Index, Manufacturing Industry Production Index, Gross Domestic Product, Cointegration, UNIT-ROOT, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE, TESTS

Abstract

This study aims to test the predictive power of two monthly indicators for economic growth in Turkish economy for the recent period. The indicators tube tested are CNBC-e Consumption Index and Manufacturing Industry Output Index. CNBC-e Consumption Index can be expected to be the early indicator of consumption expenditures in Turkey which is composing inure than 70 percent of total expenditures far this country. On the other hand, manufacturing industry is like a core of the total output, making up almost a quarter of total value added in Turkey. Hence, manufacturing output can be expected to be highly correlated with GDP This paper will test how reliable these two indicators are in their early predictions of the rate of economic growth. Our findings imply that both indexes can significantly predict the economic growth in Turkey.