Research Information System
Cognitive Systems Research, vol.97, 2026 (SCI-Expanded, SSCI, Scopus)
Decision mechanisms in project portfolio organizations generate cognitive effort in a challenging business context. This effort stays invisible in formal structures. The study addresses this gap. The Galton Board, as a statistical phenomenon, serves as a structural analogue for portfolio decision flow. The Pascal triangle and binomial expansion provide the mathematical backbone. Structural alignment across these systems enables computation. Two quantities are defined and compared. First, cognitive burden across decision depth. Second, organizational management capacity . Cognitive burden is quantified through decision branching and effort weights. Management capacity is computed through multi-project involvement intensity across role groups. The framework rests on an isomorphic mapping between portfolio governance and probabilistic distribution. Decision depth links to the project complexity level. Increased depth increases cumulative burden under the same decision architecture. Scenario-based reasoning evaluates portfolio configurations under controlled inputs. Changes in complexity level, effort weights, and role involvement intensities alter burden capacity balance. This structure supports a structured assessment of governance load in complex portfolio environments.