A Nonlinear Approach for the Determinants of Exchange Rate Volatility: Evidence from Turkey

Deniz P.

in: Dynamic Optics in Economics: Quantitative, Experimental and Econometric Analyses, Hale Kırer Silva Lecuna, Editor, Peter Lang Publishing, Inc., Berlin, pp.11-29, 2020

  • Publication Type: Book Chapter / Chapter Research Book
  • Publication Date: 2020
  • Publisher: Peter Lang Publishing, Inc.
  • City: Berlin
  • Page Numbers: pp.11-29
  • Editors: Hale Kırer Silva Lecuna, Editor
  • Marmara University Affiliated: Yes


Emerging markets are reflecting highly volatile exchange rates. Turkish economy, apart from being exposed to exchange rate fluctuations, is fragile due to its dependence on imports. The aim of this paper is to analyze the exchange rate fluctuations in Turkish economy under the following steps: (i) to run principal component-guided sparse regression (PC-LASSO) which is a method for large data to shrink predictions toward the most important variable for volatility out of many potential domestic and international macroeconomic indicators, (ii) to estimate a threshold level for the main determinant of the volatility and examine the impact of these macroeconomic indicators using structural threshold regression model. The empirical findings suggest the international reserves of the central bank as the most important variable for volatility and that the threshold regression reflects the nonlinearity of the model.